Tonight the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks meet in Dallas to break the series tie, which stands at two games apiece. In game four, the Phoenix Suns controlled the tempo of the game and the Dallas Mavericks simply looked stunned. It was not a high scoring affair per se, but it was definitely an increase in pace. Phoenix ended up blowing out Dallas by twenty, 106-86. The fact that Dallas only scored 86 is a little suspect, because Phoenix does not have a rock solid defense. The game was in Phoenix and the Mavs may have been a little off—or perhaps resting.

In tonight’s contest, the Mavs are a big 7 point favorite. This line begs the question, “why?” What exactly have the Mavs done to deserve a 7 point spread? They are coming off a twenty-point loss. Here’s my take on it. Dallas has won two games in this series. Both wins, 105-98 and 95-88, where by exactly seven points, thus you have a seven point spread. Simple right? Not so much.

The betting public looks to be gobbling up the Suns. The line has already ticked down to 6.5 and shows signs of dropping further by game time. The under/over is 206, which is odd since no game has gone this high except game one. Are we due for the shoot-out performance seen in game one? Not likely. The Mavs realize that they must control the ball and be more physical with Phoenix to win. Of course, by mentioning this, I have not jinxed all under bettors and there will be 240 points scored tonight. I like the under play in this game. Go with the flow and force the game play to beat you.