Tonight’s game 3 of the NBA Finals is pressure filled. The Heat finally come back home to try and get their first win on the board. If they lose tonight, this series is basically over. They don’t look like a team that can win four straight, which would include two games on the road at Dallas. Dallas on the other hand looks like a team following their destiny. They are up 2-0 in the series and have made the Heat, especially Shaq, look absolutely foolish.

In game two, Shaq was such a non-factor it was not even funny. He was so steamed that he skipped the postgame interview, which led to a fine on him and the Heat by the NBA. The fine to Shaq was $10,000 and the fine to the Heat was $25,000. The wheels are definitely coming off in Miami. How poor was Shaq’s performance and perhaps the Heat’s utilization of him? He has played 190 games in the playoffs—that’s a ton. How many times do you think he was held to single digits in the scoring department? If you said three, you are right. Just 3 times in 190 playoff games, that’s how rare his game two performance is. So is it Shaq breaking down, the Heat not using him fully or both?

The Heat are a 4.5 point favorite tonight. The under/over is 187.5. The good news for the NBA is this series between the Heat and Mavericks is getting 13% more viewers than last season’s match up between the Pistons and the Spurs. We will see how many tune in to game 3 with the Mavericks up 2-0 and the Heat looking like they will do nothing to stand in the way. It is very hard to see the Heat winning this series. I do think they will play better at home—see the Pistons series. I also think the Mavericks might play a little lighter—see the Suns series. Game 3 could very well be the only game the Heat will have a realistic opportunity to win.

If you think Shaq will rebound from the poor game 2 performance and the Heat will use him more, there is a good prop bet out there. At some places you can bet on the total number of points and rebounds he will have. The total is 33.5 (points + rebounds). The over is -120 and the under is -110. You can probably count on him for about 10 in the rebound department tonight. So the main question is, will he score 23 or more? The Miami Heat have been playing like the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA Finals. It’s time for them to step up—this is their last shot.