Today, the Dallas Mavericks are at home trying to fight off elimination. The task is clear. Win and stay, lose and you’re done.

The betting line is interesting today. It’s based off of one game. Dallas Mavericks are favored by 9 to 9.5 tonight. Why?

If you look over the season, the Golden State Warriors have owned the Mavs. In fact, they played the Dallas Mavericks three times during the regular season and won all three—including one game in Dallas.

The two teams split the games in Dallas so far in the playoffs. Golden State ran away with game one and in game two, the Mavs won by 13.

The Mavs are expected to play hard and I won’t be surprised to see them win, but by 9 or more?

Call my crazy, but I’m going to side with the season’s results and take the points with Golden State. I know the Mavs will play hard, but so will Golden State. They haven’t been in the playoffs in forever and now they sit just four quarters away from knocking out the top seed in the West and advancing.

If they do lose, I think it will be a dogfight. This line can be had for 9.5, so take the extra padding. I think we could see the number drop some by game time.

My pick: Golden State Warriors +9.5